你应该押注人工智能还是加密货币？另外，美国证券交易委员会的代币化股票改革

0:00 spk_0

On today's public keys from the New York Stock Exchange, the Fed may be about to pull the trigger on the first rate hike in years. Should your money be in crypto or AI, and the SEC proposes the biggest overhaul of transfer agent rules in decades. I'm Jennai. Let's get into it.Happy Monday everyone. Crypto is in the green this morning. One of the few bright spots as global AI stocks fell off after anthropic CEO Dario Omede used a weekend essay to call for slowing AI development. Oil is also higher after Saudi Arabia shut a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, extending a rally that pushed US crude above $100 a barrel last week for the first time since May. Here to take a look at the macro picture is Limita, CEO and founder Ram Ahluwalia. Hey.What a day to come back to the markets. I just mentioned a bunch in my intro there, but I just, you know, I like to start off with this question. What are you watching as we get into the week?

1:00 spk_1

So I'm watching what happens with the rates this week. The FOMC Markets are implying an 86% chance of a rate hike. That's 12, anthropic CEO came out over the weekend saying we need to slow down AI. Elon Musk and Sal Altman agreed that's led to a semis sell-off today.And third are midterms, policy, policy, policy.

1:22 spk_0

Well, let's talk about that. Markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate hike on the 16th. Talk to me about what we can expect to happen should that rate hike come. How do you expect to see crypto perform? And then let's talk about some of those AI equities.

1:36 spk_1

So my view is nonconsensus. I actually don't think you're going to see a rate hike, and if that doesn't happen, markets are going to rally sharply.So the 86% probability implied by the CME Fed fund futures, it means that a lot of this risk has already been priced in. It's rear view mirror risk. So the asymmetry is actually the upside if we don't see rate hikes. It's hard for me to see Kevin Warshch, who was selected by Trump on a campaign of we got to lower rates, and don't forget Kevin Warsh is talking about the productivity gains from AI.That's what he spent 45 minutes of his Jackson Hole speech talking about. It's hard for me to see rate hikeshappening.

2:19 spk_0

OK, you have the contrarian take. I mean, what's the market getting wrong here?

2:25 spk_1

I think the market's looking at inflation. It's looking at oil prices are high. It's looking at the 10 year approaching 5%, and Wars has said in his first FOMC presser that the Fed needs to reestablish credibility, that the Fed has missed its inflation target for 5 years and running, and he's correct about that. But I don't think you're going to see a rate hike just before midterm elections.

2:51 spk_0

OK, no rate hike before midterm elections. I would assume that means no rate hike this year then.

2:56 spk_1

I don't think this year either. The oil prices are transient. Oil prices will come down again. The 10 years is probably going to top out around where it is now at 5%, just like it topped out in 2023.And I think if you're looking at rate sensitive names and names that have sold off because oil prices have gone higher like airlines and cruise lines, I think you can set up for a really nice year in Raleigh owning those kinds of exposures.

3:23 spk_0

All right, let's, uh, I want to get back to that, but let's talk about the AI news. We talked a little bit about anthropic, the anthropic CEO coming out over the weekend with that essay. Other AI executives and leaders saying we need to kind of slow down development. We saw a little bit of a sell-off in AI equities this morning.Uh, talk to me about your view on AI as we move to the end of the year, of course, a lot of concerns, um, coming to light and affecting some of these companies.

3:50 spk_1

It's a nothing burger. It creates an opportunity to buy semiconductors, and the reason why is there's a story behind the story. Anthropic is going to release their S-1 filing imminently, probably this week, and they've got to shift from grow at all costs to making money and profitability, and their CE spending obligations are significant. So what they're really guiding towards.Is setting up a raise rate beat dynamic, that's what public markets expect. Private markets are about revenue at all costs, public markets are about discipline.So I think that's what the bigger story isabout.

4:29 spk_0

Well, let's talk about AI and crypto. We saw a lot of capital flow from crypto into the AI trade. Some of it's starting to come back as we get into Q4 Q4. What is your perspective when you look at what's going on in the AI sector, when you look at the crypto market starting to wake up, what should investors be looking at?

4:47 spk_1

So I don't expect Clarity Act will pass.The bigger opportunities are in AI. There's a lot of talent that's flowing from crypto to AI, and AI is still in the early innings. We're transitioning from a phase where we had AI infrastructure, the birth of the neo clouds, and the growth in semis and compute, and now we're entering the AI application phase. Look at the traction around instinct, granola. Meta just rolled out Muse, a personal assistant.Google is rolling out Spark, another personal assistant. Apple just revamped Siri, so it actually works now. So the next phase is going to be AI application layer, and the demand for compute intelligence is only going to go higher. I think that's where people should be focused.

5:35 spk_0

It's funny you say Siri actually works now. Last night I was saying to myself, like with all this advancement in AI, Siri is still like not really getting it for me, not really getting it

5:45 spk_1

for me. I think they're going to crack the code. I was testing it earlier and it's, it's actually impressive, so.Americans are skeptical about AI. About 38%, according to a Pew survey, like AI.That's because they haven't seen the benefits, and they've been told a lot of boomerism stories, but now they're going to start to see real value, and small businesses that are using AI are already seeing gains. We just saw a non-farm payroll report.That showed job growth. So we're not entering a world of job displacement. We're entering a world of greater productivity growth. We're entering a world where businesses can move at the speed of willpower. If you're a founder, owner, or creator, there's never been a better time to be alive.

6:31 spk_0

It's interesting you say Americans haven't really seen the value of AI yet. Still early innings. It's kind of a similar story we hear on.Crypto side, right? Americans haven't really seen the value of crypto. We've, we've seen other regions that have financial systems that aren't as good as they are here in the United States see the value a lot earlier than over here. Talk to me about about the parallels there because what you're saying reminds me a lot of what tokenization is doing for crypto.

6:58 spk_1

That's an excellent, excellent point. So on the.AI skepticism, a lot of that's driven by one, our political leaders on both sides are talking about utility bills going up.Uh, 2, the leaders of anthropic and open AI aren't the best spokesmen for AI. And third, there are credible reports of other states like China using US-based social media to undermine confidence in AI. In China, public support for AI is around 85%, and that's where it needs to be.You know, in the US on crypto, the opportunity, to your point, Jen, it is around tokenization, it is around decentralized finance, but we need to show the end user value, and the industry hasn't delivered against that. In my view, there's not much value in tokenizing.Liquid traded stocks, it's one of the most efficient markets in the world. What's the tangible end user benefit that's missing? And what about DeFi? It's not in the clarity Act. DeFi is an incredible innovation where you and I can transact. We can borrow and lend without a third party bank in the middle. We get rid of the middleman, but that's not in the clarity Act.So that's why I believe AI actually has more room to run and substantially more, and now you're starting to see governments adopt and get behind AI. There's no better customer in the world than the US government. Now they're starting to spend money on this.

8:28 spk_0

What are the attractive AI plays for you?

8:31 spk_1

So I think owning the leaders.Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, they are nice picks and shovels play. Within memory, applied materials is another one. Having exposure to micron or SK Heinch, that also makes sense to me.So I think there are a lot of ways to play it, but I do like the semiconductor supplychain.

8:51 spk_0

And quickly before we go, you mentioned midterms are coming up. Talk to me about the important outcomes from market's perspective heading into November.

8:59 spk_1

I expect that most of this midterm pricing risk will be fully discounted.Before the end of the month, that's statistically what happens in other midterm cycles. We're halfway through that already. I think a lot of this risk has been pulled forward. Most hedge funds are underinvested in the market, they already hedged, so now is the time we should be looking for opportunities.