美联储古尔斯比警告称，由于通胀率维持在 3.7%，需要采取激进的利率行动

Chicago Fed president says demand-driven pressures are forcing the central bank's hand, with the 2% inflation target now pushed to 2027

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee isn’t sugarcoating things. 9 月 21 日，他在伦敦举行的官方货币和金融机构论坛上发表讲话，阐述了美联储可能需要在利率上采取更加激进的举措，以将通胀率拉回 2% 的目标。

截至 2026 年 7 月，美国通胀率为 3.7%，几乎是美联储目标的两倍，古尔斯比认为，央行不能再将物价上涨视为暂时的不便。达到 2% 大关的时间表已推迟至 2027 年，这一延迟充分说明了通胀周期已变得多么顽固。

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美联储不能忽视的需求问题

Goolsbee’s core argument centers on a shift in the inflation narrative.多年来，美联储区分了供应驱动的价格上涨（例如关税、能源冲击、大宗商品中断）和需求驱动的价格上涨。 The traditional playbook says you can look through temporary supply shocks.他们自己解决。

But Goolsbee is pointing out that these supply shocks haven’t been temporary. Tariffs, energy costs, and commodity prices have created a persistent baseline of upward pressure.

Layer demand-side overheating on top of that, and you get the current mess. Goolsbee specifically flagged two culprits: elevated inflation in the service sector and the surge of investment flowing into AI data centers.后者是一个令人着迷的皱纹。 Billions pouring into compute infrastructure isn’t just a tech story. It’s an aggregate demand story, pushing up prices for everything from construction labor to electricity.

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鹰派的记录支持鹰派的言论

This isn’t Goolsbee suddenly finding religion on inflation. He dissented against a December 2025 FOMC rate cut, arguing at the time that inflation progress was insufficient to justify easing. That vote put him squarely in the hawkish camp, and his London remarks suggest he hasn’t budged.

The Fed originally expected inflation to peak around Q4 2025. That estimate has now been revised out to 2027, a delay of roughly two years.古尔斯比警告说，回到 2% 的唯一道路是提高利率，而这条道路是要付出代价的：更高的利率会减缓经济增长，给就业带来压力。

Despite the strong language, immediate market reactions to Goolsbee’s speech were relatively muted.