Prediction market traders see roughly 1-in-4 odds Paramount’s bid to buy Warner Bros. Discovery fails

Prediction markets traders still see Paramount Skydance as likely to succeed in its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery , but a battle in court with 12 state attorneys general is increasing the chances that the merger falls through.

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think that there's a 74% likelihood that Paramount will acquire Warner Bros. by July 2027, while there are 22% odds that a deal doesn't go through by that date.

Before California and 11 other states sued to block the merger on July 13, odds Paramount would succeed in acquiring the company were over 80%. However, the likelihood the merger would be successful fell to as low as 66% on July 24 when Paramount announced it would delay the acquisition to 2027.

On Kalshi, speculators are asked in the market who will successfully take over Warner Bros. before July 2027, and contracts are resolved from news reports, official press releases and or government filings.