Prediction market traders doubtful Bessent’s bond interventions will push yields lower

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent arrives to testify during a Senate Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government hearing in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on April 22, 2026 in Washington, DC.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is seeking to cap rising yields using a variety of tools at his department's disposal. However, traders on prediction market platforms think they won't lead yields to fall dramatically.

Speculators on Kalshi think there's a 56% chance that the 10-year Treasury note yield will end 2026 above or at 4.75%, though they also place just 27% odds that it finishes the year above 5%. As of midday trading Monday, the 10-year yield was trading at about 4.70%.

Traders on Kalshi are asked across a series of contracts about where they think the 10-year Treasury note yield will trade on Dec. 31. The contracts are resolved using data from the U.S. Treasury.

Volume on the contracts are low, though, at just over $16,500 traded.