XRP Bull Revives $10K Theory With a Supply Squeeze Argument

病毒式传播的 1 万美元 XRP 价格理论依赖于极端的供应数学和全球流动性假设，但市场现实却讲述了一个截然不同的故事。 |图片来源：CCN.com

Ripple Bull Winkle argues XRP could theoretically reach $10,000 if holders refuse to sell while institutional settlement demand competes for a much smaller pool of liquid tokens.

XRP 的固定最大供应量为 1000 亿，但 CoinGecko 的流通量约为 630 亿。

The theory correctly distinguishes circulating supply from immediately available liquidity.

The $10,000 XRP theory is back, but its latest version isn't being presented as a conventional price prediction.

Ripple Bull Winkle 认为这是一个流动性问题。

他在 X 上写道：“人们在这一点上睡着了：1 万美元的 XRP 理论不是价格预测，而是供应数学问题。如果你持有而不出售，那么你已经在减少可用的结算供应。你的包是数学建立的约束的一部分。”

这个论点听起来很简单：如果 XRP 最终能够处理巨大的机构支付流，而大多数持有者拒绝出售，那么机构将被迫以越来越高的价格购买有限的可用 XRP。

但从该机制转向每 XRP 10,000 美元需要比简单地拥有固定供应量更激进的假设。

1000 亿 XRP 并不意味着 1000 亿正在出售

创建账本时，XRP 的最大供应量固定为 1000 亿个代币。

CoinGecko 目前估计流通中的 XRP 约为 630 亿个，XRP 价格约为 1.49 美元，市值约为 930 亿美元。

Even "circulating" does not mean available for immediate purchase.

Ripple reported that, as of June 30, it held 37.66 billion XRP, including 32.6 billion locked in escrow, while 62.33 billion had been distributed.

Ledger-level data illustrates the distinction further. Bithomp currently estimates that about 19.54 billion XRP has remained inactive for one to five years, with another 6.13 billion inactive for more than five years.这并不能证明这些代币永远无法获得，但它证明了为什么可交易流动性可能大大小于总体供应量。

September's escrow cycle also complicates the idea that Ripple simply dumps one billion XRP into circulation every month.

One billion XRP was unlocked on Sept. 1, but 700 million was subsequently placed into new escrows. The remaining 300 million moved between Ripple-controlled wallets, which by itself does not establish that those tokens were sold into the market.

This is the strongest part of the $10,000 argument: market price is determined at the margin, not by simultaneously selling every XRP in existence.