Analysts split on whether Bitcoin's surge past key levels signals a new bull run

Market watchers say sudden sharp price spikes and forced short liquidations are the classic signs of a bottom, though macro risks still remain.

Bitcoin’s sharp move toward $70,000 appears driven largely by a short squeeze and cascading liquidations after breaking key resistance levels and its 200-day moving average.

Analysts are split on whether the rally marks the end of the bear market, with some warning that without sustained spot ETF inflows and easier macro conditions, bitcoin could stall near $75,000 to $76,000.

Supportive policy signals from Washington and Treasury bond buybacks are boosting risk assets, but some market observers say gold, not bitcoin, is showing the clearer hedge against currency and inflation risk this week.

Bitcoin has seen “nice momentum these last few days,” said Mati Greenspan, a former senior eToro market analyst, and founder at Quantum Economics.

“This is generally what bottoms look like,” Greenspan said. “They begin with a short squeeze, a giant green candle, start breaking above technical levels, and suddenly everyone with limit orders waiting for BTC to drop to $40,000 are now rethinking their strategy, telling themselves: “I better get on board before I miss the boat.”

When asked if he believes there is still the possibility for another drawdown, Greenspan said, “I mean, it's possible, but I wouldn't count on it. It's times like these when FOMO tends to go into overdrive.”

Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder at AdLunam, did not agree, warning against getting too excited. “I'd be cautious about calling this the end of the bear market, though, without sustained spot ETF inflows and clear macroeconomic rate easing, my concern is that BTC could run out of steam at overhead resistance.” Bitcoin rose to $79,200 on Friday morning before pulling back to $77,500.

But Greenspan doubled down anyway, saying that to him, “the current setup seems very familiar” as he doubled down on saying that the “odds of a significant pullback are looking very slim right now.”

Greenspan said we are currently “witnessing a multi-pronged push, with the White House openly discussing Bitcoin Treasury operations, the U.S. Congress working on market-structure legislation, and both the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) moving regulation toward greater clarity and adoption. And that’s just the United States.”

Fernandes largely agreed on the macro drivers, pointing to the U.S. Treasury's announcement to double bond buybacks to $4 billion , which lowered long-term yields and boosted risk assets. Months of tight range-bound trading below $64,000 to $66,000 had allowed aggressive short positioning to build up.

"That caused an upward push which triggered cascading liquidations among derivative short sellers, accelerating the spike," Fernandes said. "Breaking key resistance levels like $66,000 and the 200-day moving average also triggered algorithmic trend-following buys."

Adam Morgan McCarthy, lead researcher at LO:TECH, a London-based digital asset liquidity and market data firm, offered the sharpest reading of the mechanics. "Traders being forced out of short positions drove bitcoin's push to $70,000 this week," he said. "More than half of Wednesday's 7.1% gain landed inside a single hour, on about a third of the day's volume. That's the signature of a short squeeze."

​McCarthy also drew a pointed contrast with bullion. "Gold carries this week's real macro signal. It rallied cleanly on the Treasury doubling its bond-buying operations, with none of the forced buying that inflated bitcoin's price," he said. "If you're looking for where investors are actually hedging against currency and inflation risk this week, gold shows it, and bitcoin doesn't."

​Tobias Bauer, co-founder at TBV, noted that Binance traded $1.26 billion of bitcoin futures in a single 60-second window, 361 times a normal minute, with the funding rate now at exchange maximums. "The crowd is positioned one way," he said, "and holding a leveraged long from here is expensive."

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